A Stall, or More?

A few days ago, we looked at the outsized influence of oil on algorithms.  It’s one of the big three: oil, VIX and USDJPY. This morning, it’s USDJPY’s turn.

Futures, which were down 17 points late last night, are suddenly up 35 points as we approach the opening bell. It happened in the absence of any particular news and without any particular support level having been reached. It was just USDJPY which, on its way to backtest its SMA200, made a sudden reversal well short of it and went up to test the same overhead TL which has stopped it multiple times since Monday. This time, though, as futures were having a hard time exceeding the overnight highs, it popped through that TL – a breakout that the algos couldn’t ignore.Will it be enough to outweigh yesterday’s disappointing reversal of fortune precipitated by oil’s sudden fall from grace?

Meanwhile, the “slowdown” in COVID-19 cases and deaths in the US took a turn for the worse yesterday…


… as new evidence emerges of the administration’s failure to heed pandemic warnings from Peter Navarro from as early as January 29 even as President Trump and key administration officials were downplaying the risk. Copies of the full memos can be found here.

January 29 memo to the National Security Council, chaired by President Trump:

The February 23 memo addressed directly to the President:

ABC reports that US Intelligence officials’ warnings about the virus were first aired in November 2019 and began appearing in the President’s daily briefings in early January.

I suspect this won’t play well in Peoria.

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