A Crossroads

A little over a week ago, SPX pushed to new all-time highs.  I had a hard time getting excited about the upside.  From the Apr 29 update:

SPX has been melting up so long that I don’t think bears will rush for the exits if it tops 2940.91.  In fact, we might see some selling come in if it’s taken as a marginal new high on a truncated 5th wave. Still, a move above the Sep highs is technically bullish.  Trend followers will be compelled to go/stay long with the former highs as their stop. Personally, I would be very cautious in chasing it, keeping an eye out for rejection and shorting it if it drops back through 2940.

After giving up 100 points since the top, ES is again closing in on our next downside target — the intersection of two channel bottoms and the SMA50.  Is this the end of the slide, or is there more to go?

This has been a very well-managed slide, with ES tagging the top and bottom of a clearly-defined channel nine times since then.  While the talking heads sometimes get excited, the damage could have been much worse.

Consider BA, which is arguably in the fight of its life.  Back on Mar 11, I charted the potential outcomes of the fallout from its MCAS disaster.  The most obvious targets were the .500 Fib which would close a large gap at 369ish, the SMA200 at 358, and the .618 Fib at 351.12.BA closed the gap easily enough, reaching 365.55 later that day.  But, it took almost two months for it to finally tag the SMA200 — which it did yesterday.  In fact, it even closed below the SMA200, suggesting that the .618 is also likely.Since BA has a large and active share repurchase plan, I can venture a guess at who was keeping the stock afloat in the midst of some very unsettling headlines.


continued for members


Sorry, this content is for members only.

Click here to get access.


Already a member? Login below

Remember me (for 2 weeks)

Forgot Password