As a reminder, I will be posting only weekly from July 9 through August 6.
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The meltup continues, driven by resolution of the trade negotiations with Japan and the Philippines. While a 15% tariff is lower than was threatened, it will still lead to diminished profits and/or higher prices – risks which are both being ignored by algos.
Oh, and meme stocks are back.
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As a reminder, I will be posting only weekly from July 9 through August 6.
♦ ♦ ♦
Stocks continue to be propped up at the previous highs, as seen on ES’ 15-min chart below.
continued for members… (more…)
As a reminder, I will be posting only weekly from July 9 through August 6.
♦ ♦ ♦
It has now been over a month that SPX has traded within 2.5% of its former all-time highs. That’s over a month of flip-flopping, ignoring fundamentals, and pretending that tariffs won’t make any difference,
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DXY and EURUSD have both reached our targets from April.
USDJPY reached its in April.
There is plenty of discussion re DXY’s collapse, but the administration’s expressed desire for a cheaper dollar has probably run its course for now.
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It’s a trick question, as every new high is technically a double top for at least a few moments. But, here, we’re talking about the prospects of something more significant.
Like so many before it, the April 11 Death Cross was a head fake, signaling a concerted effort by the administration and their supporters to support markets (after crashing them.) Now, the 50-day SMA is about to cross above the 200-day, signaling a Golden Cross.
At the same time, we can see numerous technical and chart challenges facing the markets – issues which were never resolved, but merely postponed. These challenges suggest a double top isn’t out of the question.
Which one will prevail?
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