pebblewriter

Month: May 2024

  • Charts I’m Watching: May 30, 2024

    ES is gradually closing in on our downside target.

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  • Charts I’m Watching: May 28, 2024

    Futures are up modestly ahead of today’s open as oil prices are once again on the rise.

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  • Charts I’m Watching: May 24, 2024

    SPX reversed significantly at our 2.618 Fib target, closing below its SMA10 for the first time in a while.

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  • Another Test

    Stocks have done nothing but melt up since we identified the Inverted Head & Shoulders buy signal back on Dec 11 at SPX 4604. Now, 15.3% later, stocks face another important test.continued for members…  (more…)

  • Charts I’m Watching: May 16, 2024

    CPI came in a little below expectations yesterday, meaning the meltup is continuing toward our upside targets.

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  • Charts I’m Watching: May 12, 2024

    Greetings from Anegada, British Virgin Islands. We continue in vacation mode, with the next post planned for Thursday, May 16.

    The markets continue to track our forecast, with breakouts in equities and currencies and a breakdown in VIX. Oil and gas continue to hint at a breakdown, buy this remains a wild card.

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  • Charts I’m Watching: May 9, 2024

    Since the channel breakout and push above the SMA50, ES has been playing defense.

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  • Fourth Time a Charm?

    This is the fourth time in a row that ES has pushed back into the rising channel from which it previously broke down. This one is more important, however, as it has the 50-day moving average in its sights.

    As we discussed last week, all the stars are aligned should the algos wish to pursue our upside targets.

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  • On the Brink…Again

    Already elevated on AAPL’s announcement of a historic buyback, futures popped on a weaker than expected jobs report.

    The only problem is that this ramp puts them right back at the top of the channel which has prompted three previous tumbles. Will this one be any different?

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  • Don’t Forget About Oil

    Powell might insist that the word “stagflation” is never mentioned at FOMC meetings, but inflation and labor costs are still hot, and the latest GDP print is still hanging over us like a wet rag.

    Nevertheless, the algos are content to take their cues from VIX and currencies which, at the moment at least, are ramping stocks higher.Perhaps more importantly, though, WTI has fallen through our 79.42 target which in the absence of a wider conflict in the Middle East creates a real opportunity for lower inflation.continued for members… (more…)