“No Joy” is an expression pilots use when they’re unable to see another plane, typically when they’re on a potential collision course. If you can’t spot it, you just might hit it. Like seeing a hilltop or radio tower dead ahead through clearing clouds, it can be fairly nerve-wracking.

Given that today’s jobless claims were worse than almost everyone expected and are just the tip of the unemployment iceberg, it’s next to impossible to bring the proverbial bottom into focus.  Is it 10 million claims?  Twenty?  Fifty?  No one knows, because no one knows how long the virus will be with us. [Our latest COVID-19 Update.]

Futures, which saw quite a bounce overnight on a bump in oil prices premised on a thaw in the spat between Russia and Saudi Arabia, have given up almost all of their gains and are about to turn negative.

Oil and gas are still up 9% on the day – but, the algos are ignoring it for the time being.

VIX has even seen a bullish 10/20 cross – all to no avail.  At this point, I imagine Fed and White House officials alike are wringing their hands, wondering what they have to do to get a bounce out of stocks.  The usual tricks are definitely not working.

Our downside targets remain the same.

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S&P futures are off sharply, exceeding a 100-pt drop at their lows as the month- and quarter-end rebalancing has concluded and the coronavirus pandemic continues to worsen.

As expected, the rising white channel from the recent bottom has broken down and the less aggressive purple one is the next line of defense between here and ES 2155/SPX 2138. The bottom is around 2352 (SPX 2363) – an 8.5% decline from yesterday’s close.

Everyone ready to resume trading halts?

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