Our resolve was severely tested with two huge “pop and drops” in a row, but we were rewarded by reaching the upper end of our target range (SPX 1405.45) yesterday, closing our shorts from last week and opening a long position. There is still downside exposure to about 1400 intra-day (the unfinished little Crab to … continue reading →
Monthly Archives: October 2012
As we expected, yesterday’s pre-opening rally failed and new lows were reached by the end of the day — though we didn’t quite reach the upper end of our target range on SPX. Here we are, 24 hours later, looking at pretty much the same set up. The eminis are up 9 points, the … continue reading →
Very few of the rallies inspired by Draghi’s jawboning have lasted. I suspect this will be no different — especially on a day when euro zone PMI hits a new low (since Sept 09) and US PMI, while marginallly higher, indicates falling new orders and higher prices. The EURUSD has staged a nice rally off … continue reading →
If you’re a bear, the good news is that markets fell out of bed overnight — with the e-minis down 19 points as of a few minutes ago. The EURUSD plunged from 1.3082 to 1.2916 in a matter of hours… …and DX just peaked at 80.135. The bad news (if you’re a bear) is that … continue reading →
In my opinion, the next eleven sessions should shape up as a battle between the status quo and those who want a new direction. The bull market, getting very long in the tooth, is overdue for a correction. But, the administration, the Fed, and some on Wall Street need to keep it afloat for eleven … continue reading →
SPX has fallen as far as it should if the bounce up to the .886 is going to happen. I was stopped out at 1452.50 and will look to establish a long position at the .500 at 1448.25 or midline at 1446.30. If it breaks those, there’s plenty more downside to come and I’ll play … continue reading →
Trend changes are always tough. No matter your level of conviction, there’s always that “what if I’m missing something?” moment that makes time stand still. You stare at the screen, watching the market unfold, and do your best to stifle the self-doubt — looking for any sign of encouragement or disparagement. You draw a line … continue reading →
Weird stuff in the currency markets this morning. EURUSD busted its previous high, so out with the old and in with the new harmonic pattern. In so doing, it reached a .886 of its now previous high, but after a .707 Point B — which doesn’t make for a solid Bat Pattern. Furthermore, the smaller … continue reading →
ORIGINAL POST: 7:45 AM I’ll likely fade this rally. The prospect of a breakout is there, but there’s just as great a chance that it falls back. Best to follow with tight stops and see where it takes us. EURUSD has reached our targets (C? and d? below) two days ahead of schedule, but has … continue reading →
ORIGINAL POST: 4:10 AM I posted this chart early Friday morning, knowing full well that in order for EURUSD to follow our forecast… equities might not. Thanks to the miracle of after-hours trading, the EURUSD has kindly tagged our target “c?” and has rebounded — all without a nasty hit to equities prices which look … continue reading →