Probably not. Although WTI got a nice bounce off our SMA200 target…

…USDJPY’s initial pop above its SMA200 has quickly faded (again) and headed for lower lows……and SPX, after tagging our target at the channel midline, is set to run into resistance on the open.VIX remains a wild card, as always.  But, if its rising channel holds this morning’s test (13ish), it will soon be testing its SMA200 at 16.54, a 22% gain from current levels.

If the channel doesn’t hold (the usual state of affairs) then we’re in for more meltup — which would shock absolutely no one.

continued for members…

Note that ES is backtesting its white channel .786 line and SMA60 200. DXY has teased a rise back above the .618, but is pulling back at this time.Perhaps waiting for USDJPY to collapse to 108.49. RB is getting a small bounce, with a push up to 2.1669 still a possibility. While CL is backtesting its white midline……potentially important resistance.The biggest risk, however, remains the yield curve.  It’s in backtest mode, but has broken above long-term resistance – which should be bearish for stocks.10Y rates are still due for a sizable drop… …and the 2Y is clinging to support.The biggest downdrafts for stocks occur when both the 2Y and 10Y plunge, but the 2Y plunges at a much faster rate.

I’m thinking the party gets started on Monday.

UPDATE: 10:15 AM

Just noticed a nice H&S Pattern in the works targeting ES 2839.75 — about a 100-pt drop.UPDATE: 3:20 PM

SPX ran up to tag the .886 of its recent drop – a rather snappy meltup, but a meltup all the same.  It appears likely to backtest the recent falling channel in what could be a continuation move or a headfake.  My inclination is a headfake.

As always, only hold short on a weekend if you can handle the gap risk.  I’m going to sign off and work on some other charts that will hopefully make it onto the website today.

Have a great weekend, everyone.