We’ve had a nice bounce in most of our charts since reaching downside targets. AAPL has risen a decent 7% since reaching our 144.48 target on Jan 3. COMP has spiked a more impressive 12.2% since slightly overshooting our 6222.48 target. RB has recovered 14.7% since reaching 1.2603 and CL has spiked an impressive 22.2% since reaching our 43.46 target.
But, the most impressive of all is VIX, which at yesterday’s lows had moved 46% since reaching our 34.97 target on Dec 24. Yesterday, VIX reached our 19.64 target, which places it squarely in the driver’s seat in terms of the overall market which, by all counts, is nearing an important inflection point.
continued for members…
Decision time for VIX – a drop through the white channel bottom gives stocks legs and likely boosts them over their necklines. A bounce would create at least a backtest and open up the possibility of new lows.
The SPX weekly chart shows how the purple channel should be ruling the roost — especially after the yellow channel broke down.
But, the recent bounce back into the yellow channel put the bulls in charge again – at least until now. We’ve had only one backtest — the right shoulder “S.” So, with futures off 10-12 points, we might get another one here. If it turns into something more than a backtest and the latest rising channel breaks down (2522ish) then our lower targets come into play.
The ES chart is much cleaner.
While it, too, has retaken its yellow channel, it at least reached its 1.618 and H&S Pattern target.
USDJPY has failed to retake the gray channel top and is looking fairly weak at the moment – bearish for stocks.
And, as we discussed yesterday, CL and RB are due for at least a retracement – ideally to their SMA10s – a headwind for stocks over the next few days unless VIX breaks down.
Since I mentioned them above, here are AAPL and COMP. COMP has regained its neckline, so technically it is in the clear again. A drop back through the neckline would obviously trigger a short position again.
There are lots of juicy and quite logical targets waiting below. IMO the best is 5132 around Feb 14 — though I recognize how extreme that is.
And, AAPL… as long as VIX is on the rise, I’d be cautious holding long. It appears to be flirting with a breakdown. 
A breach of 152 opens up 144.48 and lower – with a drop below 142 opening up 120.29 and 105.89.
UPDATE: 3:50 PM
Coming up on the close and, of course, VIX is dumping. It’s currently below the channel bottom, but within an acceptable margin of error that this can be considered suggestive but not definitive.
Nothing else has changed – still sitting pretty much where they were this morning.
