Update on XLF: Jul 8, 2013

XLF spent about 6 weeks dallying around the .382 retracement of its fall from 38.15 to 5.88, finally squirting through in late April.

Like SPX, it peaked on May 22 — only to tumble 8.6% (versus 7.5% for SPX.)  The Jun 24 bottom wasn’t particularly motivated by a harmonic pattern or channel; it simply turned with the rest of the market.

Close up, there’s a potential IH&S that targets 21.50 or so that completes around 20.00 — otherwise, no remarkable patterns.  The Jul 1 high was a .786 retracement of the May 22 high.

So, odds are we’ll see either a Butterfly Pattern (20.83 or 21.44) or a reversal to test the purple channel bottom (late July, 18.05.)

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