This morning’s news that Trump had contracted COVID-19 brought a rash of messages from many friends with whom I had shared my tin foil hat political theories over the past year. I posted my favorite theory on this site almost four months ago. From the June 17 post:
Given that Trump’s poll numbers are slumping, I wonder at what point the establishment Republican party will start to distance themselves (losing the White House would be a blow, but losing the Senate would in many ways be worse.) Trump is clearly a polarizing figure, with most people either loving him or hating him.
The third group, those who have found it advantageous to cozy up to him and his base, include many powerful party figures who would cut and run if it would save their jobs. If we get closer to November and it looks like he’s going to lose – and take them down with him – will they perhaps approach him with a deal?
To wit: Trump would resign and pull out of the election over health issues, allowing him to save face and permitting Pence to step into the lead. Pence is popular enough with the MAGA crowd that he would retain all of their votes and just central enough that he would be at least slightly less objectionable to centrists and never-Trumpers.
If Pence won the general election, he could protect Trump from likely criminal prosecution with a pardon. If he lost, well…no harm done. Naturally, the whole scenario would rely on Trump’s falling further in the polls to the point where even an electoral college victory is beyond reach. Food for thought.
I’m certainly not suggested that Trump is faking being sick with COVID-19. God knows he has flirted with contracting the disease countless times over the past eight months and it shouldn’t surprise anyone that he became sick. But, the net outcome is the same. Stand by for Pence vs. Biden polls…
Most of our forecasts (oil, gas, USDJPY, EURUSD, etc.) are falling into place, with VIX jumping up to tag the SMA200 for the sixth time since Sep 21.
This is important overhead resistance, with a major tumble for stocks just ahead if it isn’t held.
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