This morning’s news that Trump had contracted COVID-19 brought a rash of messages from many friends with whom I had shared my tin foil hat political theories over the past year. I posted my favorite theory on this site almost four months ago. From the June 17 post:
Given that Trump’s poll numbers are slumping, I wonder at what point the establishment Republican party will start to distance themselves (losing the White House would be a blow, but losing the Senate would in many ways be worse.) Trump is clearly a polarizing figure, with most people either loving him or hating him.
The third group, those who have found it advantageous to cozy up to him and his base, include many powerful party figures who would cut and run if it would save their jobs. If we get closer to November and it looks like he’s going to lose – and take them down with him – will they perhaps approach him with a deal?
To wit: Trump would resign and pull out of the election over health issues, allowing him to save face and permitting Pence to step into the lead. Pence is popular enough with the MAGA crowd that he would retain all of their votes and just central enough that he would be at least slightly less objectionable to centrists and never-Trumpers.
If Pence won the general election, he could protect Trump from likely criminal prosecution with a pardon. If he lost, well…no harm done. Naturally, the whole scenario would rely on Trump’s falling further in the polls to the point where even an electoral college victory is beyond reach. Food for thought.
I’m certainly not suggested that Trump is faking being sick with COVID-19. God knows he has flirted with contracting the disease countless times over the past eight months and it shouldn’t surprise anyone that he became sick. But, the net outcome is the same. Stand by for Pence vs. Biden polls…
Most of our forecasts (oil, gas, USDJPY, EURUSD, etc.) are falling into place, with VIX jumping up to tag the SMA200 for the sixth time since Sep 21.
This is important overhead resistance, with a major tumble for stocks just ahead if it isn’t held.
continued for members…
Note that though ES has broken below its red TL, it has merely tested its SMA10. The implication is that the falling white channel will continue to be fleshed out. But, it will have to get through the SMA10 first.
SPX faces the same test on the open. 
WTI and RB have both reversed sharply off their backtests and are well on their way to our next downside targets.
On the currency front, keep an eye on the 10Y – which is testing the purple TL – horizontal support at 6.53. Along with VIX, this is where we would see Fed support come in.
If it breaks down, we should see the USD’s losses accelerate and the USDJPY finally let go. 
Gold and silver have both held and backtested their SMA10s, the first step in any potential bounce.
More later…
UPDATE: 10:08 AM
SPX’s gap is about to close as ES backtests its SMA50 and VIX reaches the purple channel bottom. Important test right here…
UPDATE: 3:35 PM
It’s very irksome that we are sitting at essentially the same point as yesterday at this time. From a chart standpoint, a breakdown and a breakout are both options. Though my gut tells me we’ll be at least 200 points lower by next Friday, the VIX chart tells us (more importantly, the algos) a breakout is still a possibility.
