All ES needed was a 3-day weekend – and, another timely reversal in VIX, another timely breakout in USDJPY, and another threatened breakout by CL/RB – and here we are, 10 lousy points away from new all-time highs.

continued for members…

We’ll want to keep a close eye on that little red TL on VIX’s 5 min chart.

At this point, ES is threatening to break out of the rising yellow channel once again.

As the A=B=C target moves away from the yellow 3.618, the likelihood of a 3.618 tag falls somewhat.Though, as we’ve seen from other declines, it could very well be a headfake.  SPX isn’t far behind.

VIX’s collapse has continued with the bearish 10/20 cross icing on the cake.

Note the precision of VIX’s latest channel breakdown and backtest.The big misdirection has been in CL and RB, which continue their nonsensical rallies which are simply sewing the seeds for a more destructive inflationary setup.  CL is coming up on its .886 from Oct 2018…

…while RB is coming up on its May 19 highs, already north of its .886 and nearing its April 2018 highs.

USDJPY is back to a “breakout” of its falling purple channel – though just barely, with plenty of reason to doubt it……primarily because DXY is overdue for a sharp bounce — which traditionally means an equity selloff. DJI managed to push back above its 3.618 last week and is angling for its gray .886. Importantly, it has the opportunity to complete a bullish 10/20 cross if it can top and hold 34900. And, NKD continues to play keep-away from its SMA200, backtesting its SMA100 again.