pebblewriter

Tag: trend lines

  • Charts I’m Watching: Jan 17, 2025

    Futures are up moderately ahead of housing data on a continuing pullback in interest rates.

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  • FOMC Day: Dec 18, 2024

    Futures are struggling after an overnight ramp job driven by VIX’s retreat from its 200-day moving average.  Aside from the technicals, we see more and more analysts echoing our view that a rate cut makes little sense at this time.

    Our charts indicate three distinct and very concerning tripwires for equity investors which, depending on what the FOMC decides, suggest substantial downside.

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  • Charts I’m Watching: Dec 2, 2024

    Futures are flat as we enter the final month of a pretty solid year.

    Questions remain, however, regarding the economy’s ability to withstand the coming policy changes.

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  • Charts I’m Watching: Oct 8, 2024

    Futures have rebounded almost .50% after testing recent lows yesterday.

    Traders remain focused on tomorrow’s FOMC minutes and Thursday’s CPI print.

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  • Charts I’m Watching: Aug 27, 2024

    Futures are off moderately following yesterday’s reversal, the 6th session in a row that ES failed to surpass its .886 Fib retracement.

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  • Powell Shows His Stripes

    In a speech that was essentially a mashup of all his other recent speeches, Powell reiterated at Jackson Hole on Friday that the pandemic – not historically dovish monetary policy – caused the recent huge spike in inflation. In fact, the Fed should be congratulated for putting out the inflationary fire that they started.

    He did mention by way of a little joke that the Fed’s assessment of inflation being transitory was wrong, but that the Fed had plenty of company. Essentially, no harm, no foul.

    Now, the Fed is apparently ready to lower interest rates. This view will ideally be underscored by Friday’s core PCE print. The market expects it and, in fact, needs it. But, anything more than 50 bps could be seen as the Fed panicking and could unravel the current rally as it stumbles merrily along.

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  • Update on Gold and Silver: Aug 20, 2024

    In our last dedicated Update on Gold and Silver in April, we noted that gold had reached our Fibonacci target of 2466.50 but could have further to go.

    GC is fairly straightforward. There’s a large IH&S pattern which completed around Mar 7 targeting 2557, a short distance above the white 1.618 at 2466.50.

    GC reached 2557 this morning.

    It’s interesting that it’s reaching overhead resistance at the same time as SPX and at the same time that DXY has reached our next downside target.

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  • Charts I’m Watching: Aug 16, 2024

    Futures are off moderately after weaker than expected housing data and in anticipation of next week’s Jackson Hole Fedspeak.

    ES reached our next upside target a little ahead of schedule, and is now backtesting the purple TL from recent lows.

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  • Update on RUT: Jul 23, 2024

    A lot has happened for RUT in the past week. It was only 11 days ago that we updated its chart, suggesting RUT would reach 2282 by the end of the year.

    RUT’s reversal at its .618 in April set up either a Gartley or Bat pattern, meaning a move to its .786 at 2282.27 or its .886 at 2364.78.  If we extend the dashed red trend line to the right, we get an intersection with the .786 at the end of the year – a very common scenario. While the .786 in December is a logical next target, an equally compelling case can be made for the .886 in September or October.

    Don’t look now, but RUT pushed past the red TL we discussed, allowing RUT to tag 2282 (well, 2278) late last week.

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  • Fourth Time a Charm?

    This is the fourth time in a row that ES has pushed back into the rising channel from which it previously broke down. This one is more important, however, as it has the 50-day moving average in its sights.

    As we discussed last week, all the stars are aligned should the algos wish to pursue our upside targets.

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