Futures are essentially flat ahead of today’s pivotal FOMC decision and press conference.  This follows a day that saw stock prices plunge below our initial backtest target……as VIX actually broke out – at least for a few hours. The banking crisis obviously hasn’t gone away. How many more First Republics or Silicon Valley banks are out there – clicks away from a bank run? Even those banks which aren’t already in trouble will most certainly cut back on lending, which will certainly raise the odds of a (worse) recession.

Will the FOMC take that into account as they contemplate future actions?

continued for members… (more…)