pebblewriter

Tag: Minutes

  • Retail Sales (Sort of) Flat

    July retail sales came in at 0.0%, a goose egg, versus expectations that were generally around 0.1-0.2%. These data aren’t adjusted for inflation, however, so the “real” change was another drop.

    Markets seem to care at the moment, with ES off nearly 1%.  But, our charts had already called for a reversal yesterday after reaching upside targets across the board.

    With Fed minutes coming out at 2pm ET and VIX still unable to push past the considerable suppression that has been applied at the 10-day moving average (20.51), bears should continue to exercise caution.From a fundamental standpoint, this retail sales report is horrible. It’s disappointing because it’s flat rather than up, of course. But, it’s much worse because it’s not bad enough to sway the Fed from inflation fighting.  We’ll get a peek at their minutes in a few hours, but suffice it to say this bad news is just plain ol’ bad.

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  • Fed Minutes on Deck

    Futures are off sharply as we approach the open. Algos are responding to VIX’s pop back above its 200-DMA and the prospect of increasing Fed hawkishness.

    As we pointed out yesterday, the 10Y has again reached the top of a well-formed channel dating back over 30 years. Its ongoing decline has provided much of the fuel for increasing stock, bond and real estate prices, though, reversals at the channel top have marked severe downturns.If the Fed prevents the 10Y from breaking out while continuing to raise short-term rates, the 2s10s will become even more inverted, validating recession forecasts. And, as we discussed last week [see: Should We Fear a Yield Curve Inversion?] the aftermath of these inversions has never been good for stocks.

    Bottom line, the Fed is damned if they do and damned if they don’t.  The real question surrounding today’s minutes is whether members will sound as bewildered on paper as they have in person.

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