The S&P 500 came within 11 cents of 5,000 yesterday, marking a remarkable 43% run since the October 2022 lows and 22% return since the October 2023 lows.
The month of February has a mixed track record over the past 10 years, with gains and losses evenly split. Stocks frequently pause at big, round numbers – which conflicts somewhat with the fact that stocks usually melt up into CPI prints.
continued for members… (more…)
Charts often explain the market’s moves in a way that data can’t. If I’m a central bank, market maker, large hedge fund or bank trying to protect its long book, I’m gearing up to slam VIX down below that dashed red trend line.
Depending on who’s pulling the levers, it might or might not be enough to stave off the reversal that was due at yesterday’s highs. This meltup might simply be market makers trying to dig out from under their massive options exposure (OPEX is Friday.) It could also be the Fed’s attempt to engineer a soft landing. It could even be the BoJ, ECB or SNB trying to protect their books.
It doesn’t really matter. The important thing to remember is that as obvious as the bearish case might be, the market is subject to a great deal of “interference.” Watch your back.
GC soared over $1200/oz since losing 30% in sympathy to the global market meltdown in 2008. Most of that rise took place in an acceleration channel.
In the past year, however, the most prominent pattern has been the descending triangle (purple, dashed.)
Continued…
