2015 was a terrific year from a market forecasting standpoint. If someone had followed every single long/short call at exactly the price at which it was made, a $10,000 stake would have grown to $64,042 [results: HERE.]
But, as we all know, there’s more to great returns than great research. So, for all you members new and old, who’d like to be heard, here’s your chance.
continued for members…
Speeding Things Up
One constant challenge, of course, is conveying research quickly — especially on days when SPX is fluctuating wildly. Fast moving, HFT-driven markets are a problem for any trader. But, they’re especially challenging when you’re waiting on someone else’s forecasts to make trading decisions.
At times, this lag might have helped you — particularly when I jumped the gun or fell for a head fake. But, at other times, such as when I got nervous about a position working out and bailed before I had planned to, it can hurt your returns. Not good.
To address this issue, I set up a private twitter account (@pebbletrades) that I will use to tweet notices of forecast and position updates. As long as at least 10-12 of you sign up for it, we’ll give it a go. It’s available to subscribers only, so I have to approve each follow request.
Some of you might wish to protect your anonymity by creating a new account for this special purpose. If so, or if your twitter handle doesn’t tell me who you are, please send a separate email that will allow me to link your handle with your true identity.
And, if only a handful of you sign up, it’s going to be hard to justify the extra brain damage. Speaking of which…
Membership and Finances
When I first started pebblewriter.blogspot.com in May 2011, it was just for fun. There was no money involved, and I had a real job that paid the mortgage. I turned pro in 2012, did that for 18 months or so, took time out to run a hedge fund, and then returned to this full time about a year ago.
At the time, I had one of those conversations with my wife that most entrepreneurs have: benchmarks, cash flow, etc. My goal was to have the website be self-supporting within the first six months and covering the bills by the end of the year. She, on the other hand, wondered why I just didn’t take an overpaid job on Wall Street…
The reality is that I love the work. And, it’s nice being able to decide my own schedule (where to spread the 70-80 hours each week?) and even work in feety pajamas when I feel like it. In fact, I’d like very much to be able to devote all of my professional efforts to the site.
But, at this point, the site nets about 1/8 what I could earn were I to take one of those overpaid Wall Street jobs. I know, because some of you have tried to lure me back to Wall Street!
So, I’m sometimes torn between doing more here and doing other things that help build up the wedding and college funds (three daughters, the first of whom just announced an engagement) let alone the retirement funds. And, there’s a lot more I would like to do here.
It would be neat, for instance, to be able to hire some folks to do some of the administrative work that sucks up several hours each day: maintaining the membership rolls, improving the website performance, dealing with PayPal issues, etc. That’s time I could put into updating ancillary charts more frequently or just doing more big picture thinking about where “markets” are headed.
I would also love to limit trading of my own account to only a few days/month. Trading while charting and blogging is challenging, and invariably leads to doing a half-assed job on one or the other.
It would be nice to be able to get to the gym more than once a month, maybe even take a vacation once in a while. It would help me do a better job for you; and, it would help me keep doing it for many years (I’m told that sitting on your duff for 14 hours/day isn’t the best way to stay healthy and crafty on into your ear-hair years.)
Last, I’d love to explore different formats like video presentations, conference calls, live seminars and even live chat rooms. But, of course, all these things require more time and money — two things that are already strained.
It’s all about trade-offs: the potential conflict between doing the best job possible for current members or going out and begging for new members. I’ve tossed it around plenty, and believe it comes down to three choices:
- continue bumping along, doing a ‘good enough’ job while spreading myself thin
- spend more time trading and on other professional pursuits
- devote more time to sales and marketing
None of these would be very beneficial to you, my members. So, that leads to a fourth choice: spread the word. If every pebblewriter.com member spent 15-30 minutes this weekend putting the word out, our membership would double or triple; and, some of those things I mentioned above would be easily within reach.
Ways you can help include social media mentions or retweets, speaking to friends and colleagues, or telling that brother-in-law or broker you share forecasts with to get his own damn account. I know investing is a personal thing, and it goes against human nature to share valuable information (if everyone knew, you wouldn’t have an edge!)
But, we can have an even more successful community here. If you value this site, please take a moment and help grow it. The response I get from each one of you will directly affect how beneficial it is to you.
Current Promotion
In keeping with the above request, I’m going to leave the current sale up through the weekend. $640.42 is the best price I’ve offered in years, and works out to only $53/month. Again, spread the word! Details and signup is available HERE.
Other Enhancements
As I study other ways to deliver more value, I would like your input. What have you seen elsewhere that would be beneficial here? Would you enjoy videos? Conference calls? Seminars? One-on-one coaching? Chat rooms? Take a moment and drop me a line. You can email me at michael [at] pebblewriter [dot] com or CLICK HERE and fill in the blanks.
Thanks for listening, and I look forward to your thoughts!