There are continuing rumors of a peace deal in the Middle East, but no one with any credibility can say exactly what the deal is or even who in Iran is negotiating it. Iran says there is no deal, and in fact there are no negotiations going on. So, color me skeptical.

There was that big drop on Mar 23, but otherwise oil has remained range bound. No lower lows over the past two sessions.

Nevertheless, Trump will likely continue touting the deal as long as it pumps the Dow.

Meanwhile, 2s10s are down to 45 bps and targeting 40 bps – supporting the stagnation half of the stagflation argument.

Just a reminder, there will be no posts on Thursday or Friday as I will be traveling.

GLTA