Retail sales disappointed, coming in at a paltry 0.1% — well below expectations of 0.5%.  Once again, we see how dependent the data is on gas prices.  And, once again, we’re left to wonder if the number would be positive at all if: (a) accurate inflation adjustments were used, and (b) the impact of the trade wars wasn’t already being felt.

The dollar index, which had completed a H&S Pattern, scurried back above the neckline in an attempt to keep futures in the green.

ES is still positive by a few points after breaking out yesterday on the expected “timely” breakdown in VIX.

continued for members…

SPX has an opportunity to break out past the small red TL on the open.  The trick will be holding it.

At present, it looks like ES will likely backtest the rising white channel from which it broke out — probably at 2907.50ish.

Will the dollar bounce hold?  Hard to say.  But, USDJPY broke out as expected yesterday.  So, regardless of what the euro has in mind, the yen is there to lend a helping hand.CL is nearing its decision point on the SMA200 tag.  It should come in the next session or two – perhaps as the ramifications from Florence turn out to be not to extreme.
RB has given up most of its Florence spurt and is currently testing a small TL which is all that separates it from our .618 target.

UPDATE:  12:06 PM

ES just got its backtest on news that Trump is still pushing for tariffs on $200BB.  Since it came a little early, there’s the possibility of an overshoot that would allow ES to tag the red TL and for SPX to tag its SMA5 200. If SPX’s SMA5 200 should fail, the next support is the SMA10, followed by the SMA20 and gray channel bottom at 2880.42 and, of course, the Jan highs at 2872.87.

VIX came in just a little shy…

UPDATE:  2:45 PM

The TL worked for ES, SMA5 200 for SPX.  VIX is back on its way toward the yellow channel bottom at 11.78ish.  Given the weekend headline risk and the volatility we’ve seen today, I’d be comfortable covering our short VIX position anywhere between here and there.