The retail sales rebound stumbled in July, coming in at 1.2% versus 1.8-2.0% expectations and last month’s 8.4% blowout. YoY, July saw an increase of 2.7%. Of course, July included stimulus payments to consumers which, with Congress leaving town for the rest of the month, are looking less and less likely.

And, AMZN, the retail colossus which can do no wrong, has now put in 5 lower highs since reaching our upside target on Jul 13.Futures are off only slightly, reflecting another overnight pump and dump in VIX.

continued for members…

A reminder: the bigger picture for AMZN:

VIX is getting very close to the intersection of its falling yellow channel and SMA200.  It’s a strong candidate for a rally.

Stocks are still loitering near the all-time highs, with the rising white channel bottom approaching important downside support such as the yellow channel midline, ES’ 2618 Fib, etc, not to mention the white .786 and .886.

One notable reversal came in USDJPY, which declined (so far) to break out… …even though NKD is at a critical decision point.I’m beginning to wonder if USDJPY might fall enough in its own right to drive DXY down to our 91.358 target even if EURUSD doesn’t break out.Gold has stabilized back above its former highs… …while SI has found a refuge at its white channel midline.WTI and RBOB continue to waffle, adding to the triangle they’ve been building since mid-June. UPDATE:  2:40 PM

So far, VIX’s threat to “break down” has been effective in preventing a breakdown in ES/SPX.  I still expect a pullback rather than new highs, but it’s looking like anyone wanting to place that bet will have to take weekend risk. What else is new?

I neglected to post this earlier. Note that TNX has reached the extension of the TL which it broke above in late 2019 (to keep the rally alive.)  The diference is that this time, TNX’s little white flag pattern has already broken down. This is an important inflection point for the 10Y, which is quite rightly responding to inflation pressures.

I have a conference call coming up at 3pm which will likely last past the close, so I’ll sign off now.

Have a great weekend everyone!