NFP came in a nearly double expectations: 254k versus 130k expected. The unemployment rate dropped from 4.2% to 4.1%. Altogether, it was a very hot report that might have been expected to dampen expectations regarding the next FOMC rate cut. But, the algos are currently in a “good news is good news” mood, so futures are up sharply.
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In a week fraught with geopolitical danger, the market has managed to thread the needle thus far – holding support when it counted. Even if it manages to shrug off tomorrow’s nonfarm payroll print, it still faces CPI and PPI next week.
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Futures are trading near yesterday’s lows, with tensions still high after Iran’s attack on Israel yesterday. Iran says the flareup is over, but Israel says otherwise.
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Futures are flat on the first day of Q4. 
There’s no critical data due out today other than manufacturing ISM (10am ET) which has lately been tracking the economic slowdown.
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Futures are slightly lower on the last day of a pretty impressive Q3 at +8.7%.
Can the rally keep going in October?
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The PCE price index, core PCE, real disposable income, real PCE, and goods all increased 0.1% in August Services increased 0.2%. The print was largely in line with expectations, with the YoY PCE registered 2.2% (2.7% core) as expected.
These data support the Fed’s recent actions and expectations of further cuts into the year end. Futures, having already priced in these data, are up slightly.
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China’s Politburo has pulled out all the stimulus stops, sending the CSI300 4.2% higher and an index of Chinese developers over 15% higher. Perhaps even more importantly, David Tepper, in a CNBC interview this morning, characterized the move as extremely stimulative and supportive of stocks not only in China but around the world.
US futures are up sharply, answering the question as to whether we’ll get a pullback after SPX recently reached our IH&S target.
This move, which will likely be echoed by the Japanese, should give equity investors confidence to remain long through the US election.
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Futures are flat as we approach the open.
It’s a little surprising, given that the 2s10s is breaking out again.
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Equities remain stuck in a narrow price range since reaching our IH&S target on the 19th. Ordinarily, we’d see a retracement afterwards. But, these are hardly ordinary times.
Among other issues, rising oil prices have pushed the 2s10s up to our 20 bps target.
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Futures are up slightly ahead of another data-heavy week: S&P Services and Manufacturing PMIs today, Philly Fed Non-Manufacturing, Richmond Fed, and the Conference Board confidence data tomorrow, and Initial Jobless Claims, Q2 GDP, and Core PCE later this week.
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