Once More, With Feeling

While SPX has pushed above its 2.24 Fib extension multiple time over the past two months, and has remained safely above the critical support for the past seven sessions. ES, on the other hand, has really struggled. Following a failed rally on Mar 21, ES didn’t even tag its (2728.79) again until May 11. Since then, it has made numerous failed attempts to hold support.

Will this latest attempt hold? Or, is it simply the latest effort to stave off a coming decline? Those with razor sharp memories might remember May 21, 2015 was an important day for SPX.

Keep an eye on the dollar. If USDJPY — which has nearly reached our upside target — is any guide, it might have run out of steam.

continued for members…

And, with a little over a week left before May’s CPI is written in stone, it’s time for CL and RB to implode — at least to their initial backtest targets.The lower targets would put CPI back at 2%, but could be a drag on stocks.

A reversal candle for DXY…

…and, a failure of VIX to break down yet…

…means SPX’s pop on the opening might mean a slightly higher high for (ii), but it might not hold. By all means, play along if it does. But, I wouldn’t be surprised if it fails.We’re been wondering for a long time whether SPX has been clinging to 2703 in order to mark time. Today, we should finally get our answer. The line in the sand for SPX is 2742.10 — the May 14 high.

It would be much easier to feel confident about the COMP SMA200 dip if there were an obvious point where the SMA200 would intersect with a chart pattern – a channel line, etc.UPDATE: 10:50 AM

Decision time… For those who want to take a shot at a downdraft, this is it. Mind your stops. Obviously, VIX could spoil things for the bears with a drop through the TL. UPDATE: 12:20PM

So far, so good. VIX hasn’t broken out, but it got a nice bounce off the red TL. COMP looks very unlikely to break out.SPX is hanging in there, but the .886 is safe for now. And, as an aside, GC has still not broken down. Should be a safe entry point for those not already long – objective 1380ish with stops around 1250ish.And, as another aside, TSLA is backtesting its neckline. So much negative news on this stock, it’s a wonder it hasn’t deflated already.I have to run out for a meeting. More later if anything significant pops up.