Oil and gas have both now reached our upside targets. USDJPY is pressing up against the top of a falling channel. VIX is testing support that has been responsible for several declines over the past two months. Durable goods orders just came in well below expectations. What will it take to stop ES/SPX from pushing up through overhead resistance?If it can’t push through, the nearest strong support is well below current levels.

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The failed rising channel hadn’t stopped ES from making higher highs.

Part of the problem remains the bond market, which should continue lower as CL reverses. The yield curve continues to track stubbornly sideways. How much longer can EURUSD remain afloat?  It couldn’t even manage to backtest its SMA200. If its support fails, DXY will finally reach its .618 — and potentially more.  This would add fuel to the deflation fire.For now, USDJPY is remaining in its latest falling channel. SPX’s version of the coming test… As usual, much will depend on VIX.  Today, we see it back at the red dashed line which provided support several times over the past few weeks — and a very notable time when it didn’t.