Central bankers everywhere are publicly conceding that their creations (aka “markets”) are overpriced.  Yellen herself has uttered the “B word” on more than one occasion.

So, it is with great curiosity that we approach another FOMC Jamboree that will either further inflate the myriad bubbles or seek to let just a little air out — ideally without popping them.

After nailing our downside target on Monday, SPX rebounded to slightly higher than our bounce target.  Will it break out again?  It all depends on Ms. Yellen & Co. and whether they can locate their long lost backbone.

Remember, at least 75% of the time, FOMC announcements/press conferences have led to a frenzy of algo activity that drives prices higher into the close.  It’s part of the “FOMC has got our back” meme that investors have come to accept/expect.

A quick look at the S&P eminis this morning.  The threat of a breakout is very real, but we have a pretty clear line in the sand with which to identify it.

My preference is to stay on the sidelines on days like today.  The algo-driven rallies don’t always last, and there are often sharp spikes in either direction.

UPDATE:  9:35 AM

A short-term shorting opportunity here at 2103.64 as SPX just nudged up against the SMA50 and still no breakout on ES.  Tight stops are advised.

Updated targets and currency charts coming up in a few.

continued for members…

USDJPY is doing its part to boost stocks this morning.  The 60-min chart:

And, the daily, reflecting a more bullish placement of the big white channel.

CL is acting more restrained this morning, but clearly is boxed into a breakout or breakdown situation.  Note the continuing Flag Pattern, which argues for a breakout.  Obviously, CL is subject to the whims of the USD, which will no doubt be buffeted by the FOMC’s actions (or lack thereof.)

UPDATE:  11:50 AM

SPX just tagged the SMA10 at 2095.61 — a natural place for a bounce.  Conservative types might wish to take the 8 points from this morning’s short and wait to see what the FOMC has in store.  CL and USD argue for more downside, but it’s arguably a crapshoot.  Anyone staying short should keep a close eye on their stops.UPDATE: 1:50 PM

For anyone still holding short, I’d cover here at the SMA100 unless you have inside info or can properly hedge.  I can make good arguments for both the upside and downside targets.  I still prefer the downside, but the algos often override the fundamental impact of FOMC decisions.

I have to run out for a couple of hours, so will have to listen on XMRadio.  I’ll check back in after the close.

CL is looking weak, but could easily snap back above the purple channel bottom. And, USDJPY has snuck back up to the broken purple TL and the 1.618 Fib. GLTA.

UPDATE: 1:00 AM

With respect to the question posed by today’s title: not even close.  The Fed’s dots show them to be more cautious, not less — with the odds of a substantial rate rise being acknowledged as lower and later.  Yellen was obtuse as ever.

(A better investment of time would be this interview with former Dallas Fed advisor Danielle DiMartino Booth who slams the Fed for having backed themselves into a very tight corner — the tightest ever.)

The algos kicked in as expected, with our suggestion above to cover shorts at the SMA100 proving to be the right call.  CL retreated above the purple channel bottom… …and USDJPY formed a decent looking Flag Pattern before slipping lower here late tonight — though it is still above the red channel midline. The Greece situation seems to be worsening.  It will compete with a bevy of economic indicators tomorrow for the “market’s” attention.

More in the morning…