After a couple of months of less than normal manipulation, February has been an exercise in just how far TPTB can/will go in propping up prices.  The chief culprit has been CL, which came within a few pennies of our ridiculous upside target Friday.

It ramped again off its overnight lows (+3.7% in 5 hours) allowing ES to turn yesterday’s 20-pt loss into a 2.50 point gain this morning.    continued for members…The hitch in the upside case at this point is USDJPY, which fall our of its rapidly rising channel on Sunday, and has put in a rather lackluster (so far) backtest.ES went from a drop through the IH&S neckline to a backtest of it.  So, the key will be getting back above ES 1952 or so.It leaves SPX with a rather murky outlook.  At this point, I’d start out short, and see if we can get down to the SMA5 200 target (now 1939.24) we spent Friday thinking about.Though, it could easily get hung up at the daily SMA50 at 1944.02.UPDATE:  9:55 AM

Though USDJPY is prompting a sell-off……the guys running CL this morning didn’t get the memo……because, SPX came up .28 short of the SMA50.  Hopefully, they’ll get it together and we’ll get the 1944.02 or SMA5 200 tag after the top of the hour.  Don’t be surprised if USDJPY dips below the white TL in order to accommodate it.

UPDATE:  10:14 AM

It got within 18 cents in this push.  I’d go ahead and cover the short here, as it’s just too much trouble.  In fact, I’ll sit in cash until something interesting happens.Note that CL came all the way back down to the red TL, but after the algos were already kicked into high gear.  USDJPY got tired of hanging around below the TL and finally bounced back up. Odds are SPX will take another crack at the downside when the SMA5 200 reaches the falling red TL — probably around 1942 at 10:35 or so.

UPDATE:  11:09 AM

Quick update…we might get a backtest of 1944.02 when the SMA5 200 crosses it after 11:30.  It might entail a tag of the SMA5 100 (currently 1952.99) before that occurs.But, it’s hard to say.  Despite USDJPY still hanging out below the white TL, CL keeps making new highs.  Could be it just forgets about the SMA50, figuring that 1944.18 was close enough. UPDATE:  2:22 PM

In a profoundly drawn-out process, SPX finally managed to tag the SMA50 at 1944.02.  USDJPY could be ready to bounce, but ES, CL and NKD are pretty much in no-man’s land.  In other words, it’s likely going a little lower. UPDATE:  2:27 PM

CL and ES just reached support, and USDJPY was already there.  So, I’d assume this is a good bounce spot.  Back to long here with tight stops.Wow!  30 seconds later, and we get this…Do you suppose they’re trying to tell us something?

It’s pretty ridiculous, in that they could easily have tagged 1944.02 hours ago and been done with it.  Now, SPX has to push back up through all that overhead resistance.

UPDATE:  2:43 PM

Losing support here, back to short.  Next support is the red TL around 1935, then the rising purple channel bottom at 1932ish.But, NKD just found support, so we could get a random bounce at any time.And, neither USDJPY nor CL has lost support.

UPDATE:  2:51 PM

I’d revert to cash here on NKD, USDJPY bounce.UPDATE:  3:08 PM

I don’t have the foggiest idea what they’re going for, but maybe it was as simple as the SPX red TL.  If so, we’ll get a nice bounce here.  If not, the bottom of the purple channel crosses it around 1933 at the close.Looking back, there was plenty of movement today, but little of it makes any sense – even in retrospect.  Here’s where things get interesting, though.  ES — which failed to regain its H&S neckline this morning — is about to complete a H&S Pattern targeting 1887 (a 43 point loss.)If it closes on the neckline, it would probably correspond with SPX closing on the purple channel bottom — at around 1933.  Put it all together, and we’ll probably get a bounce here on SPX’s TL, but it could easily melt away into the close.

And, remember, a close at the neckline is a trap for about 50% of all traders.