FOMC: Endgame?

I can’t recall the last time we saw such a wide array of expectations regarding the FOMC’s next steps. Like opinions, data has been all over the map. Just this morning, Trump’s latest nominee for the Fed, Stephen Moore, insisted we could have 4% growth with no inflation going forward. Total nonsense, of course.

Futures were off by as much as 7 points overnight before a pop in oil futures brought them back to even. They’re currently off about 2 points — about where we were yesterday morning at this time.

If the rising wedge and SMA10 break down — likely, as the FOMC is rather boxed in — look for ES to test its rapidly rising SMA50, currently at 2846.50.Today, we’ll take a look at the big picture and try to discern what the charts suggest the Fed’s actions might be.

First, a reminder as to where SPX/ES stand. As we discussed yesterday, a drop through 2940 — which it should do on the open — is a signal to short. From there, we have multiple downside targets starting with the SMA10 at 2919, the SMA20 at 2901 and SMA50 and small white channel bottom at 2938.

If the white channel breaks down, there’s little in the way of support until reaching the SMA200, currently at 2766 and rising slowly, followed by the 2.24 at 2703.62 in late May.