The overall trend since 2008 remains down, with EURUSD likely on its way to the .618 retracement (largest white pattern) of the rally from 2000 to 2008 at 1.12 in either January or (more likely) May 2013.

This lines up roughly with a 1.272 extension of the Jun 2010 to May 2011 rally (purple) and the 1.618 extension of the rally beginning in July 2012.

continued for members…

The EURUSD has retraced .786 of its decline from Oct 17, bumping up against the upper bound of the falling purple channel dating back to May 2011.  A close any higher would be a clear break out of the channel, but doesn’t appear likely.

The pair has formed another rising wedge (the last one busted) that reaches to the upper bound of the purple channel — and, so far, a .786 retrace of the most recent decline.  This rally should exhaust itself by the .886 at 1.3084.

The next move down should be to Point D around the end of the year  — probably to either the .618 at 1.2472 or (secondary target) the .786 at 1.2282.