GDP is on track with estimates at 2.8%, but ADP payroll data was 2X estimates at 233K versus 115K. Given the Fed’s recent emphasis on employment, this morning’s data adds to the argument for at least a pause in rate cuts.

The more important data, however, is tomorrow’s PCE print.

continued for members…

Since it won’t reflect the YoY rise in oil/gas prices that CPI will, it stands a better chance of arguing for the Fed to continue on its present course – which would likely be a mistake.

Equities continue to bounce around near our upside targets, though as we noted yesterday the SMA10s have rolled over. We’ll want to pay close attention to the potential SMA10/20 cross.

I’m working on a big picture post for after the election and hope to get it up by this weekend.

GLTA…