Futures are off modestly following stronger than expected economic data and a 50 bps ECB rate hike.The 50 bps hike surprised many, given the increased focus on banking instability. We can bet the Fed will be watching markets closely this morning, as it faces a similar decision next week: stick to its inflation fighting (a rate hike) or acknowledge that the banking system needs more support (a pause.)

continued for members…

Stocks continue to coil, with ES still sitting right at the top of the white channel it broke out of back in January.

VIX is certainly not helping stocks recover – still above its SMA200.

The ECB decision was no doubt heavily influenced by the fact that stocks would have been clobbered had the EURUSD broken down here. At this point, it seems content to go sideways whilst allowing the channel bottom to continue its approach.USDJPY continues to go sideways. CL and RB are selling off again, approaching yesterday’s lows.

This means the 2Y continues to be under pressure, taking out recent lows.  Remember, if the 2s10s pushed above 48 bps, markets should come under extreme pressure.  GLTA