March durable goods plunged 14.4%, falling even greater than the expected 12% drop. This is the worst read since 2014 and the second worst since the GFC.

Meanwhile, COVID-19 deaths in the US topped 50,000 as daily growth in cases and deaths remains stubbornly high…

…and, in the world, nearly 200,000 have died and cases have topped 2,750,000.

The most promising therapeutic, remdesivir, was dealt a setback when results of a study in China implied it was not useful at all.  The FDA should announce hydroxychloroquine’s uselessness later today.

The futures, of course, ignored all this and have rallied 55 points – the third session in a row… …on the back on VIX’s nearly 20% smackdown since Tuesday.continued for members…

Looking at the bigger picture, we’re waiting to see if ES’ latest attempt to regain its SMA10 will last…

…or whether SPX will get a crack at its 2.24 extension.USDJPY continues to hint at a breakdown, with its SMA50 only .005 above its SMA200… …while CL and RB are oscillating about support, but doing no harm…

…and VIX has an opportunity to complete a sloppy H&S Pattern if it can drop through 38.20 or so. UPDATE:  10:16 AM

University of Michigan consumer sentiment came in at 71.8, the steepest monthly decline ever.  Present conditions plunged to 74.3…

…and home buying conditions dropped to the lowest level since 1983.

ES is back below its SMA10 and has backtested its .500 Fib… …while SPX is now in the red.It’s worth pointing out that had TPTB allowed a 2.24 backtest on Apr 13 or Apr 21, SPX wouldn’t be facing a potential H&S Pattern targeting 2574. If it happened on Monday, it would tag the white channel bottom.

So, tagging 2703 now brings with it the risk of an additional 129-point drop. FWIW, a slightly deeper drop to 2538 would close the gap from Apr 3. Will this activate the protective factors?  BTW, for those wondering about that solid yellow line running just below and parallel to SPX’s neckline…it’s actually the .236 line of the yellow channel from the 2009 lows. The dashed white line is the midline of the rising white channel from the depression. So, it’s quite important to the bulls for SPX to hold it.

More later.

UPDATE: 3:45 PM

And, they did. Although we might get a reaction here at ES’ channel top, there is very little standing in the way of a breakout to the .618 at 2930.12.  Could stocks still collapse to SPX 2703? Sure. But, now it would mean a breakdown of the rising white channel midlines – so less likely.

VIX won’t find support again until 32.75-33.13.USDJPY continues to melt down, but remember there’s a BoJ meeting coming up next week. So, staying short over the weekend carries some risk. And, CL is apparently pegged at the channel bottom at 17.12 while RB is slightly back above its SMA10. Although they should continue selling off, I would steer clear of both over the weekend.