PCE came in on target at 0.3% MoM and 2.5% YoY. Core PCE was up 2.6% YoY. Although personal income shot up 0.9% (versus 0.3% expected), personal spending declined to -0.2% (-0.5% real) versus 0.3% expected.
In other words, consumers’ spending is in line with declining consumer confidence, home sales and employment and slowing GDP. Combined with elevated inflation, the data continues to hint at stagflation. It leaves the Fed in a box which doesn’t allow for any rate cuts in the next few months.
Meanwhile, stocks continue melting down. COMP has been especially walloped. approaching our 200-day MA target from December 26 [see: Update on COMP – Dec 26, 2024.]
continued for members…
Sorry, this content is for members only.Click here to get access.
Already a member? Login below… |