While the Fed is unlikely to lower interest rates in July, September is looking more and more likely. There are three more CPI prints due out before their September 17 meeting, and there’s a very good chance that tomorrow’s print will feature a 2 handle.

Futures are drifting higher again this morning on positive support for algos.

continued for members…

It’s a virtual replay of the last few days, with the SMA10 now having cleared the flag pattern of the past two weeks. All this means is that there are now two strong support mechanisms below ES at 5580ish…

… to go with the very strong Fib support at 5573.

Note that SPX’s RSI has risen to a new cycle high since becoming overbought again. The last time this happened was in late 2019 when RSI popped above 70 in November, December and January – dipping back down below 70 in between each peak. The lower low and lower high in February, of course, marked the start of the COVID crash.

This is not necessarily going to happen again, but it bears (pun intended) watching.

Currencies continue to support stocks, with EURUSD still threatening a breakout… …and USDJPY still melting up.DXY is still on a ledge.

Meanwhile, CL and RB are still retreating… …which is supporting TNX’s steady state.Powell is back on Capitol Hill today, this time being grilled by the House. I’m not looking for any surprises, just both parties trying to get him to say something supportive of their candidate’s track record – both past and prospective.

GLTA