CPI came in at 2.2%, the lower end of our range.  At we showed last week, this was accomplished at least, in part, by deliberately understating the actual increase in gasoline prices for the month of September.  It was further depressed with the magical “seasonal adjustment” applied by the BLS.

Core CPI came in at 1.7% (vs 1.8% expected) which has dollar bulls understandably unnerved.  Note that the rising white channel dating back to Sep 7 has finally broken down.

continued for members…

USDJPY is reacting similarly.

Gold, on the other hand, is liking the CPI number.  Though, as we discussed, it has potential resistance here at the SMA20 and 50.

I’d stay long as long as it remains above 1300, but a reversal at the .382 would make sense if it still has a SMA200 tag in mind later this month.  If it closes above the SMA50 (currently 1301.10), then the path to 1380 is wide open.

Ironically, RB and CL — which created the inflation problem in the first place as they were used to get SPX up over 2500 (and other equity indices over their resistance) were again employed to stabilize “markets” this morning.  Kinda like trying to put out a fire with kerosene…  Will these ramp jobs fade?  If not, the breakouts should close the door on another leg lower.Note that CL’s IH&S suggests new highs targeting 54ish.  The larger IH&S targets 58+.Equities are enjoying the boost, with ES up about 6 points and holding the rising purple channel just fine.  I’ve tightened it up, some, mainly to catch a break in trend in the event 2500 is still being targeted.  At this rate, bears will be lucky to see a backtest of 2534 next Tuesday.BTW, I’ve updated the Current Forecast page, which is simply a snapshot of my views on a variety of things.  I try to update it every time something reaches a target, a target changes or we get stopped out.

Back to packing!  I’ll try to post later today, but if my knees are as sore tonight as they were last night, I’ll be spending the evening with a bottle of Aleve and a couple of ice packs.

GLTA.