Inflation data was already going to be suspect enough, given that Trump only likes “good” data and that the Secretary of Labor was one of the very few people who hailed Trump’s decision to fire the head of Labor Statistics over her “bad” data.

Toss in the absence of October data due to the shutdown, and you’d need the faith of a village idiot to believe that CPI increased only 0.2% from Sept-Nov.

If the annual rate of 2.7% were accurate, it would be the first time in years that CPI increased during a period when YoY gas prices were increasing.

Nevertheless, the algos liked what they heard and didn’t hesitate to react as though Stephen Miran was the new Fed chair.

continued for members…

Yet, it’s interesting that ES hasn’t broken out of the small, falling red channel. Either the downtrend is still intact and this is a nice big bump designed to shake loose a few bears, or TPTB are getting nervous.

The answer will likely depend on whether carbon-based analysts call BS on the sketchy data. I, for one, declare it so.

Ceteris paribus, VIX suggests there’s more downside. Keep on eye on VIX 16.56.

We’ll also keep a close eye on USDJPY. The BoJ has shown unusual restraint so far, but then again the Nikkei is doing just fine.

And, EURUSD still owes us a SMA200 backtest.It shapes up as a good chance of DXY surprising folks to the upside.

We’ve talked a lot about oil and gas this week. With the administration (and OPEC) declaring that inflation is over and rate cuts are urgently needed, it’s not surprising to see CL and RB bouncing today even as the 10Y is lower.

Of course, the 2s10s is still flashing a big, red warning sign.

GLTA