October CPI came in much lower than expected: +0.4% overall and 0.3% core versus 0.6% and 0.4% respectively. The YoY print was 7.7% overall (6.3% core) versus 7.9% expected and 8.2% for September. Despite the deceleration, CPI remains elevated.
Declines occurred in most categories except energy, where MoM increases remained stubbornly high.
Futures jumped over 100 points on the news after a significant drop yesterday.
continued for members..Interesting from a charting standpoint as SPX’s SMA10 had started to roll over.
If the pop holds, it completes a 200-pt IH&S targeting the SMA200 near the top of the white channel. In other words, another couple of months of a bear market bounce.
As of right now, VIX is making new lows.
Though it had worked its way back above the yellow TL yesterday.
Likewise, EURUSD reversed its decline and is now threatening a breakout. It will be important to bulls that it do so.
Don’t expect USDJPY to stay where it is either. The yen should strengthen against the USD.
The rest of the currency picture remains muddled, with GC and SI rising nicely…
…and BTC bouncing up to backtest its .786.
While CL and RB are little changed, the 10Y is dropping sharply.
I suspect the volatility will remain high all day as things settle out. Caution is warranted.

