Cornered Bankers Resort to Ramping

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With nonsensical policies failing to create any real upward momentum in global economies, central bankers have resorted to what they do best: overnight ramp jobs.

USDJPY has bounced over 1%, back above the falling white channel bottom after testing the rising purple channel from 2011.2016-02-22 USDJPY 60 0615And, CL has rebounded over 5% off last week’s downside target of 31.47.2016-02-22 CL 60 0615 continued for members

Look for SPX to test Friday’s upside target of 1936.32 in its opening salvo.2016-02-22 SPX 60 06152016-02-22 SPX daily 0615This will get it up past the falling white channel midline and the falling purple TL.  Then, we’ll look for some backtesting and consolidation and further ramping up to the SMA50 — probably tomorrow.

Once the SMA50 is topped, the upside case shifts to the purple .618/SMA100 combo at 1999, followed by the white channel top and purple .786 at 2050 in late March.  An alternate target is the .786 of the drop from 2134 to 2010 at 2065.

Either is legitimate, but 2065 means SPX will have broken out of the white channel — which is, of course, the path the central planners have in mind.

UPDATE:  9:33 AM

There’s our initial target.  Shorting here for the moving averages to catch up.2016-02-22 SPX 5 0633UPDATE:  9:35 AM

Stopped out.  Back to cash.2016-02-22 SPX 5 0635UPDATE:  9:37 AM

Just tagged the gray channel top.  This looks like a reasonable place to pause. I’ll revert to short here at 1941.38.2016-02-22 SPX 5 0640UPDATE:  9:44 AM

Looks like they’re determined to bust ES 1940 to stop out a few folks and to establish a higher high for wave purposes.  Watch your stops.2016-02-22 SPX 5 06449:49 AM UPDATE

Just topped ES 1940 — backing off now that the trend is established.  ES/SPX should settle a bit until the SMA5 10s catch up.  2016-02-22 ES 15 0649CL has increased exponentially this morning.  It’ll probably test 33.88 before it’s all over, but maybe after some backtesting.2016-02-22 CL 5 0654And, USDJPY is already settling lower.2016-02-22 USDJPY 5 0654UPDATE:  10:01 AM

So far, it’s shaping up as a repeat of the ramp sessions from last week: big gap open in the morning, and solid support until the SMAs arrive to drive it further.  Back to cash until we get some support, at which I’ll probably look for a long entry point.2016-02-22 SPX 5 0701It appears ES is now going for its SMA50 up at 1944.23.2016-02-22 ES 5 0706UPDATE:  10:15 AM

SMA5 10 caught up.   Will probably look for an entry point when the SMA5 20 catches up.2016-02-22 SPX 5 0715This is how it looked last Wednesday.  Note the slight dip below the red SMA5 10, a bounce back above, then a drip to the white SMA5 20 — at which point it got back on top of the SMA5 10 for a 7 point bounce.  It faltered at that point, but only dropped to support by the rising purple SMA5 50.  2016-02-22 SPX 5 0737UPDATE:  10:58 AM

USDJPY and CL are testing support, SPX should test the white SMA5 20 and the gray channel top and then bounce.  Ideally, CL will tag its SMA5 50 or the purple TL around 33.31-33.35.2016-02-22 CL 5 0757 2016-02-22 USDJPY 5 0757UPDATE:  11:06 AM

ES just tagged its SMA5 100 — a decent sign that this horrific 6-pt slide is over.  I’ll try a long position here at 1939.51.2016-02-22 SPX 5 0806UPDATE:  12:10 PM

CL just dipped below the purple TL, so I’d go back to cash here.2016-02-22 SPX 5 09102016-02-22 CL 5 0910Shorting would make sense — except for the fact that USDJPY is breaking out…2016-02-22 USDJPY 5 0910UPDATE:  3:00 PM

SPX has been riding the rising SMAs all day.  There’s about a 50:50 chance it’ll dip at the close to either the red .500 at 1936.22 or the purple TL at 1930ish.  I’ll take a chance on a short position here at 1942.47 with tight stops in case it ramps up to 1954.05.2016-02-22 SPX 5 12002016-02-22 USDJPY 5 1200 2016-02-22 CL 5 12002016-02-22 NKD 5 1200UPDATE: 3:28 PM

SPX rallying past SMA5 20/50 on NKD bump.  Back to cash here at 1942.36.2016-02-22 SPX 5 1227UPDATE:  3:47 PM

Last try.  Back to short here at 1944.44.  I like the idea of a tag of the SMA5 100 at the red .500 fib at 1936.32 as a headfake to set up a pop in the morning — though the sell-off itself could just as easily happen in the morning.2016-02-22 SPX 5 1245No point in holding short overnight, though.  We’ve seen way too many overnight ramp jobs lately.

UPDATE:  3:57 PM

Not happening.  Back to cash.2016-02-22 SPX 5 1257UPDATE:  4:53 PM

Algos put to bed for the time being…  probably just a coincidence that the prop job ended the very minute SPX closed for the day.  Looks like it would have nailed the white target at 1936ish.  Oh, well…

2016-02-22 ES 5 1353