Draghi’s press conference is wrapping up, and the upshot is a weaker economy going forward — but, one strong enough to get along without QE.  2018 GDP was lowered from 2.4 to 2.1%, with 2019 and 2020 remaining unchanged at 1.9% and 1.7%.  2018 inflation estimates were increased from 1.4% to 1.7%, where Draghi expects it to remain for the next several years.

Not surprisingly, the euro is taking it on the chin.DXY, whose latest channel had broken down yesterday, was suddenly back in the black.Equity futures are loving the dollar resurgence which, combined with the threat of (what else is new?) another VIX breakdown, has ES pushing 18 points off its overnight lows.  For now, at least, the focus is off China’s economy, which is clearly weakening just in time for the imposition of US tariffs.

continued for members…

I would keep an eye on the Dow today.  It made the smallest possible backtest – the red channel top.  I had it going to at least 24950 for even a half-hearted backtest.

SPX backtested the .707 – again, very underwhelming – unless there’s more coming on Monday. CL continues to backtest the purple TL. Overhead resistance is at 68ish.While RB is doing what I consider to be a pretty good fakeout of a breakout.  If I’m wrong, there is channel overhead resistance at 2.14. Those following the dollar might remember our premise from February – that it would come back down and tag the purple channel bottom once the channel bottom represented a higher low. USDJPY dropped through its SMA200, but has pushed back above it in the pre-opening ramp.