Friday’s ridiculous maybe-we’ll-delay-the-end-of QE ramp job carried over into the Sunday session, boosted by Abe’s proclamation of increasing the Japanese public pension plan’s holding of equities from 12 to 25%. But, it ran into a dose of reality this morning with IBM’s dismal earnings announcement. At present, the futures are off slightly, even though the TOPIX was up nearly 4% in Japan’s Monday trading.
Today should shape up as a battle between the carry trade and real live earnings, with SPX’s SMA200 still around 1906 and multiple lower targets as detailed over the past several sessions. Though VIX made an impressive move last week, it appears unfinished to me. Though, as Thursday and Friday demonstrated, patterns are no match for the power of the FOMC/BOJ punchbowl.
After today’s QE market goosing, there are supposedly only 3 more POMO days left.
Note that VIX’s decline backtested the purple channel top, which has held so far.