First, a quick update on yesterday’s CL and USDJPY charts:

CL reneged on the IH&S that helped ES/SPX top their .886 Fib levels, and is further abandoning the TL that limited yesterday’s downside.Maybe it’s because of where USDJPY currently trades.  It’s menacing enough, all by itself.

continued for members…Will it or won’t it top the SMA100?ES recovered most of yesterday’s losses and is sitting at +4. This would put SPX just over its .886 — in technical no man’s land.  We remain short from 2115.70 on Nov 3.

The insinuation by CL and USDJPY is slightly bearish.  But, I’d want to see USDJPY decline below its 5-min SMA200 and the new red TL of support before I begin to feel safe with the short position.UPDATE:  10:03 AM

SPX just backtested its broken rising wedge, but no confirmation yet from CL or USDJPY – which is still above its SMA100.  Our immediate objective is about 2100.UPDATE:  10:16 AM

UPDATE:  10:20 AM

UPDATE:  10:26 AM

Switching back to short side as ES is losing its 60-min SMA100 (yellow.)  Objective 2086ish. UPDATE:  10:31 AM

To clarify, we should get a bounce when ES reaches 2081ish:  60-min SMA200 and daily SMA10.The only hitch:  USDJPY just reached that red TL.I don’t necessarily expect it, but if the objective doesn’t hold, then the next target would be the .786 at SPX 2077.45/ES 2069.16.

UPDATE:  10:52 AM

USDJPY is bouncing, but should stop at the 5-min SMA200.  Trying to get ES and SPX up to their SMA10s for a delay? Or, pumping them for another immediate leg down.  Unless USDJPY immediately reverses, I’d take profits here and reshort at the SMA10s. UPDATE:  11:00 AM

Reshorting here at the SMA10.  Very tight stops advised, as popping up to the SMA10 (white) is a common tactic.UPDATE:  11:14 AM

I think it’s going to pop up and tag the SMA20.  Going long here, will reconsider if/when.  Objective currently at 2097.74, but perhaps shooting for the red channel midline at 2096.60ish for the euro close.

UPDATE:  11:20 AM

The tip off: USDJPY back above the red TL.  Looks like it’ll test the SMA100 for sure.SPX almost there.  UPDATE:  11:27 AM

SPX just reached 2096.61.  I’d take profits on the long and revert to short with tight stops — just in case they’ve got the SMA100 at the purple channel midline in mind (2100.8ish.)Because of this delaying tactic, there’s a much better chance of things dragging out for hours — meaning the purple midline coming into play.  Unless USDJPY and/or starts down pretty quickly, I’ll think long and hard about going back to cash.  The squiggles during the middle of the day are all about separating traders from their cash.

UPDATE:  11:43 AM

All done.  Back to cash here.  Will take another look at 12:09 PM.Even though USDJPY backed off its SMA100, it isn’t showing any interest in helping SPX decline just now.  12:09 is a very common time for the next leg down to get started — assuming there is one.UPDATE:  12:07 PM

There’s the SMA100 tag pretty much on schedule. I’ll try a short position here at 2101.05. I’m not a waver, but this looks like 5 waves down from 2116 to yesterday’s low of 2098, followed by an ABC higher to this morning’s backtest, and either 1 of 5 or A of ABC just completing.

USDJPY is looking like it might cooperate. But, CL apparently hasn’t received the message yet.  This makes me thing we might be a little early.  The 5-min SMA200 is just above at the .886 (2104.21) so it’s a very good possibility.UPDATE:  12:25 PM

Not happening now, as USDJPY isn’t going to allow it.  Back to cash. UPDATE:  2:09 PM

Getting a little momentum to the downside.  Will try a short position here, but be prepared to cut it loose if USDJUPY bounces at the SMA100 instead of plunging through.UPDATE:  2:19 PM

Someone just decided oil is too expensive…  Remember this is an important channel midline.USDJPY is right back to that red TL…UPDATE:  3:18 PM

Not crazy about this latest push back through the SMA10, and USDJPY is doing the same.  Cutting loose of the short position here, might pick it back up if we get a USDJPY reversal.If it doesn’t happen in the last half hour, there’s a decent chance of an overnight drop to the .786.  But, I’m not confident enough in it that I’d recommend an overnight position.  There’s an equally good chance SPX will go up and tag that SMA200 at 2103.61 here.

Note that CL has been inching higher — will probably wait until after the close to tank.Here’s another chart to watch — looks like they’ll monkey hammer VIX into the close.UPDATE:  3:44 PM

Looks like the SMA200 it is…  Not enough points to justify a trade here.  But, we can safely assume the last second plunge ain’t happening!

If it just tags it, with USDJPY barely over the SMA100, that’s not a terribly strong close.