Charts I’m Watching: Nov 11, 2013

Today is Veterans Day in the US.  It began as Armistice Day in 1918 to celebrate the end of “the war to end all wars.”  Unfortunately it wasn’t the end, so Armistice Day evolved over the years to honor America’s veterans for their patriotism, love of country, and willingness to serve and sacrifice for the common good.

It’s a good reminder to reach out to veterans you know, or even one who’s a total stranger, and thank them for their service.  The cushy life we live wouldn’t be possible without them.

If making a donation is more your style, my personal favorite is the Michael J Novosel Foundation.  Mike Novosel began combat service as an Army bomber pilot in World War II and ended up a medical evacuation (Dustoff) pilot in Vietnam.

He and his son Mike Jr. flew together in the same unit and rescued one another — each, after the other was shot down — only a week apart in 1969.  I had the honor of knowing them both.

Mike Sr was shot down after flying fifteen times into a Viet Cong training area, without air or ground support, to rescue 29 South Vietnamese soldiers who were pinned down by machine gun and mortar fire.

In Mike’s opinion, there was nothing extraordinary about this mission.  It was similar to many of the other 2,542 missions in which he rescued 5,589 wounded during his two tours.  The army disagreed, and he was awarded the Congressional Medal of Honor.

We toss around the word “hero” much too lightly.  It cheapens the whole concept.  In my opinion, Mike Novosel set the bar exactly where it should be: a selfless dedication to others, regardless of the personal risk.

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Nothing has changed since Friday.  SPX got within .53 of the .886 of its drop from 1775 to 1746…

…while the e-minis came within 1.42 of its .886.  We’re seeing a reaction as a result of being close enough to a Bat Pattern completion, but whether we’ll get one last little push or not is anyone’s guess.

I suspect we will, as there was very little in the way of wave action on the way up. If so, the targets are ES 1770.17 and SPX 1771.31.

The dollar is loitering near the red channel it just backtested at the white channel midline, which makes it a candidate for a fresh leg back below 80.

UPDATE:  10:10 AM

Both just reached their 886, so we should see some downside here.  As always, the question is “how much?”

ES is at the midline of the redrawn channel, so my best guess is the red .146 line where it intersects with the .618 at 1759.98.  But, I’d keep stops just above the 1774.50 high just in case there isn’t much of a reaction at all.

A more drawn-out affair could target the falling white midline late tomorrow afternoon at 1754.50.

SPX’s channel is much better defined than ES, and suggests a lesser drop to the .786 at 1768.48 might be all the downside in store.

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