Charts I’m Watching: May 5, 2014

USDJPY’s white channel broke down yesterday as expected, and the grey channel bottom and yellow midlines are currently providing support.

2014-05-05-USDJPY 60 0620 2014-05-05-USDJPY 4hr 0620The strong reversal off the SMA100 on Friday was a pretty good confirmation of a negative picture going forward. I suspect the next moving average test will be the 200-day just below 101.

ES retraced to the white .500 in the bullish pattern, but could easily slip to the purple .618 (1860.04) or .786 (1853) if things get going to the downside.  Note that the .786 is aligned with the red channel bottom.

2014-05-05-ES 60 0620UPDATE:  11:20 AM

Follow the leader again this morning, with USDJPY’s bounce leading stocks higher by about 3-5 minutes.  As usual, stocks were only to glad to catch up to and surpass the pair’s move.

2014-05-05-USDJPY 5-min 0821Only problem for stocks is that USDJPY, while taking out last night’s highs, has also completed a bearish flag pattern that targets the SMA100 at around 100.95.

And, it’s just a pimple on the but of the large flag pattern (below, in white) that targets 100.20 or lower.

2014-05-05-USDJPY 4hr 0821Whether it’ll be allowed to play out is another matter.  Remember, tomorrow is Tuesday.  In fact, Thursday is the only day this week without scheduled POMO.  In other words, there’s a decent chance that this bearish pattern will play out in the after hours when the banksters can more easily keep the futures afloat.

Stay tuned.

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