Charts I’m Watching: Mar 7, 2014

USDJPY popped to the .618 with this morning’s jobs report.  It also represents the midline of the red subchannel.  It appears to me to qualify as a completed corrective wave — though I can’t discount the possibility of the white .786 at 104.43.

The bigger picture still shows the lopsided nature of the yellow channel’s action.  The length of the 2nd wave has probably taken the white .618/1.618 combo (86.58) off the table as the worst case scenario for the next leg down.  The .500/1.272 combo at 90.50 looks much more likely — with a time frame of mid-late April.

The white .886 at 95.11 would be somewhat more likely — assuming the yellow midline can be broken.  The purple .618 at 100.17 still looks like the immediate downside target — probably around Mar 11-13.

The key, IMO, will be the Dow.  It popped, along with everything else this morning, but tagged its well-formed channel’s midline and promptly hit the brakes.

We’ll keep an eye on it.

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