As we discussed yesterday, SPX may not be ready to make its next move.  The critical USDJPY Fib of 120.11 was tested and has rebuffed (for now) any further advances.

Likewise, VIX tested the .886 again and (for now) couldn’t penetrate it.

CL popped through the TL we discussed in the members’ section…

…which, with USDJPY’s temporary move higher than 120.11, was enough to boost stocks higher on the day.

It’s difficult to overstate the importance of USDJPY’s actions.  Two of the previous rejections resulted in 100+ point declines for SPX.

The third didn’t, but on that occasion USDJPY merely backtested the broken pennant top, and SPX was further aided by oil’s rebound and some nifty VIX monkey-hammering that broke the rising trend.

continued for members…UPDATE:  10:20 AM

The red channel top and SMA10 have held, so far…

…thanks to CL, which has bounced off the broken TL from the 2/17 top.  BTW, the rising purple channel would still look more convincing with a .786 tag.  But, it’s starting to pull away.  And, a tag at this point would represent a fairly substantial plunge from the channel.

Conclusion: either it had better get there quickly, or it might not get there at all.

My hunch is that we’ll see SPX decline to our 2093.55 target — particularly if USDJPY declines to flesh out the rising white channel (118.75ish, depending on when) or lower.But, for now, TPTB are pushing all the right buttons to prevent it.