SPX nailed our downside target yesterday with a solid backtest of the broken red channel at 2101.78.   From yesterday’s member section:

SPX just tagged 2105.  Since the decline was pushed out a few days, there’s a good chance it’ll continue lower and make a proper backtest to the falling red channel…look for a bounce between 2000 and 2102, but be cautious re overnight ramp jobs or dips.

The overnight ramp job was modest — up 4 points at the present time.  It’ll be interesting to see how it does with CL breaking down.  Oil has been instrumental in stocks’ rally.  How will they do with it breaking trend?

continued for members…

Naturally, a CL sell-off means a dollar rally, which means a USDJPY rally, which means stocks are being supported.  Note that it hasn’t broken out of the falling purple channel…It’s a question of how much propping up TPTB wish to do today.  Being a Friday, it’ll likely close at the low for the day or go into sustained algo-advance all day.  Much of it will depend on Greece, which probably won’t be resolved until this weekend — if then.  It’s going to go down to the wire.  Good update/post on Zerohedge.

Here’s our original downside targets again.

My gut tells me it’ll settle down to the SMA100 at 2095 and maybe close there.  But, too hard to know for sure with USDJPY rallying like this and all the headline risk.

More after the open.

UPDATE:  3:55 PM

Like watching paint dry… SPX reached 2095.38, tagging the SMA100.  It appears content to close back above the red and white channel lines.  Still expect some more downside to tag the gray midline, but, of course, wouldn’t take the headline risk over the weekend.

Too risky with the pressure the central banks will feel to portray everything as being just fine.