Futures fell as much as 23 points from yesterday’s highs overnight, which led to CL’s sudden departure from the falling white channel it’s been in for the past month.

Given that the dollar is sliding and the yen appreciating, it’ll probably be too little, too late.  We’ll stick with Friday’s downside targets for now.

continued for members…The only proviso is that the bottom of the white rising wedge is just below at 2104.60ish.  And, SPX will need to punch through it — if only intraday — in order to reach 2093 or 2082.

First, a look at DX, which has backtested the white channel midline and reached the .382 after a .618 retrace.  Moment of truth for the dollar, as the major Fib tag at 92.322 remains backtest-free.

The EURUSD chart could, likewise, go either way (with the backtest of the purple midline representing a pretty big one-day move already) but with a big, bullish target of 1.18 still hanging out there in late June/early July.

USDJPY has pulled back to the purple 1.618, but still has the bigger target of the white 1.618 at 125.72 to run to if things get out of hand.

SPX has now opened and just tested the SMA50 as well as the May 26 lows.  Look for a bounce here to test the white channel top.

UPDATE: 10:07 AM

Note the H&S Pattern on the 60-min chart (yellow neckline.)  It points to 2064, but obviously the algos are working overtime to prevent it playing out.

With the headline risk from Greece so great, traders would do well to consider sitting on the sidelines until there’s a breakdown or breakout.  The leverage exerted by CL, USDJPY and EURUSD is creating a lot of noise that’s obscuring the risk of a default.

Even on the fundamental side, it’s pretty tough to decipher what’s real and what’s noise with all the rumors flying.  Should the euro really be up 2% today?

If CL does break back below the white channel and the dollar shoots higher, we could see EURUSD reverse lower (bearish) and USDJPY reverse higher (bullish.) 

As discussed many times before, it’s a scenario that prevents the market from declining precipitously unless there’s a stampede of sorts.

More later.

UPDATE:  12:45 PM

The SMA50 is as low as the algos were willing to permit so far, as CL has soared over 2% from yesterday’s close.

UPDATE:  1:30 PM

SPX has bounced all the way back to top of the falling channel.  It should reverse here unless we get another Greece is fixed rumor prior to the close — always a risk these days.