Charts I’m Watching: Jun 12, 2014

The little IH&S that was setting up yesterday afternoon might still be in play. Keep an eye on 1838.50.

The trouble in Iraq is one of those game-changers.  We’ll see if TPTB decide whether or not it matters.  Lousy retail sales…but, since when does economic data matter to the market?


2014-06-12 ES 15 0600

Here’s a look at SPX now that the market is open.

2014-06-12 SPX 15 0635

UPDATE:  9:50 AM

Another absolutely non-sensical day from a charting standpoint.  Remember when breaking a significant low used to mean something?

2014-06-12 ES 5 0645

What could turn things around like that?  Here’s the culprit…about 200 contracts of NKD, nominal value around $15 million.  In this bot, NKD drives USDJPY which drives ES (140,000 contracts, nominal value $13.5 billion in the last hour) which drives SPX.

Welcome to the wonderful world of algos…where the tail not only wags the dog, it makes the dog its bitch.

2014-06-09-NKD 15 min 0650


Downside after all…led by the 10YR (hitting channel resistance and an important .618) and the USDJPY (approaching its SMA200 and a .886 at 101.57.)  NKD reaches channel and Fib support at 14,835.

SPX has dipped below the TL connecting the 2011 top to the .Dec 31 top, but approaching a combo .786/.886/1.618 of support at 1926.77.

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