Note: There will be no post tomorrow, July 17, as I have some pressing family medical issues to which to attend.
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Watching the news on Fox/Time Warner this morning… I don’t know anyone in corporate at either shop, but know some of the studio folks very well. Can’t think of a worse cultural fit…
Another 1am ramp job last night with ES spurting 6-7 points after USDJPY broke out on several shorter-term clouds.
The daily cloud still argues for a tough road ahead, as do the multiple moving averages just above. The 10, 20, 50 and 200 are all between 101.7 and 101.92. As always, it will come down to where the BOJ wants the pair to trade (if left to reflect market pressures, it would have plunged beneath 100 long ago.)
ES is pushing yesterday’s high which completed a Bat Pattern on the white grid and saw a reversal to nearly the .382. Yesterday’s high also completed an IH&S; but, the subsequent reversal clearly did wiped out the right shoulder marked S1. The question now is whether S2 — a much more appealing size/shape — might do the trick or we’re in for yet another head fake.
continued for members…
The neckline crosses the 1978 high in the next hour or so. So, we should find out soon. But, it’s worth noting that the last leg up could be a corrective wave that backtests the broken red channel. Watch 1978.25.
The bulls’ goal is obviously SPX/ES 2000. But, if the IH&S neckline is rebuffed again, there exists downside potential to the grey .618 at SPX 1949 (note the absence of an IH&S on SPX.) Monday’s bottom at the purple .500 sets up a potential bearish Bat Pattern wherein the .886 overlaps the grey .618.
But, it would need to play out quickly. The red TL and purple channel midline are rising fast.
UPDATE: EOD
FWIW, the Dow tagged a 1.618 Fib at the end of the day. SPX and ES were notably weaker into the close. This is the sort of situation that makes me a little nervous (which, lately, means new highs.)
