Futures are up modestly, tagging the top of our falling white channel…again.

The executive orders announced yesterday might stimulate additional animal spirits, but it’s difficult to believe that any tangible benefits will offset the economic expense of higher inflation driven by higher tariffs and deportations.

continued for members…

The market is poised for a breakout…with ES’ SMA50 the key price level to watch.

…with VIX positioned to make it happen – though, notably, it hasn’t really made new lows since late December.  A pop and drop on the first day of Trump’s presidency would be very interesting. I question whether the apparatus is yet in place to juice the market right off the bat.
Currencies appear stretched, meaning the bears need a reversal by EURUSD.

CL has backtested its SMA200. A bounce here – which we will probably get – would typically reverse TNX’s slide and pressure stocks. Obviously, “drill baby drill” doesn’t really mean that supply will increase any time soon.

Note that the 2s10s breakout is currently faltering – with the drop in the 10Y yields more than keeping pace with the drop in the 2Y.  Bears would benefit from 2Y yields dropping more rapidly or the 10Y reversing course and heading back toward 5%.

Stay tuned…