Futures are again flat after initial claims exceeded expectations, another data point for the FOMC to consider with respect to their Dec 18 rate decision.

continued for members…

This is one of the quietest overnight periods in recent memory, perhaps since ES is still hanging around a price range at which it should have reacted.

EURUSD is potentially breaking out of the falling red channel after reacting at the purple midline, something it’s done 5 times since Dec 2022.

Judging from DXY’s chart (and economic reality), however, this is probably a small countermove that won’t last.

OPEC+ agreed to postpone the output hike they had been contemplating, meaning that oil prices should remain in the tight range it’s been in for the past two months. This sector continues to offer poor trading opportunities.

The 10Y continues to hug the SMA50 and SMA200……meaning that the 2s10s continues to hug the zero line.

This remains a sketchy market. The lack of a significant reversal at SPX’s or ES’s important Fib extensions isn’t all that surprising given that it’s December and the typical barn race is on. But, it’s hard to justify a significant climb between now and Dec 31 unless VIX continues to melt down – and that’s a tall order given the obvious economic issues (tariffs) staring investors in the face. This feels very much like picking up pennies in front of a bulldozer.

GLTA.