Lots of targets were reached yesterday.  USDJPY reached our downside target at its SMA200.VIX reached our next upside target at the .500 Fib.Gold reached our next upside target. ZN reached our next upside target.And, CL reached our next downside target at the .618 Fib.With so many key levels being reached, it’s not surprising that SPX reached our next downside target and got a nice bounce.  The question is whether it’ll hold.

continued for members…

Importantly, it also tagged the bottom of the yellow channel.  Remember, this channel is as phony as a $3 bill.  But, it has been in place since the 2016 lows and ties the tops together.  So, for now at least, the market gods have deemed it legit.

Time will tell whether it breaks down and the purple channel can resume control.We’ve been waiting for a bounce into YE, and this is as good a place for it to start as any.  Just be aware that the momentum is running strong to the downside.  So, any falling knife catching requires trailing stops just in case the wheels come completely off the bus.

The 2s10s is getting a respite, so our yield curve model allows for a bounce here.And, ES doesn’t have far to go to break out of its falling red channel. There are a number of ways to instigate a bounce here: a bounce by CL/RB, a bounce by USDJPY, a retreat from EURUSD, VIX getting hammered.

We’ll watch VIX especially closely, as it has clearly broken out.  A backtest of the broken red channel top, however, could keep SPX afloat until after the YE.Last, COMP and AAPL have further to go, but could easily do some backtesting if given half a chance. I have meetings through early this afternoon.  But, I thought it would be fun to chart a bunch of the go-go names that have been so instrumental to the growth narrative. Enjoy!

UPDATE:  3:45 PM

Sheesh…can’t leave my desk for even a few hours without the whole market breaking!

SPX is scrambling to get back to its white 1.272… …and might be able to with the help of VIX, which is backing off the .500……and USDJPY, which is getting a bounce off its SMA200 again.AAPL – almost to our 144.48 target……and FB, closing in on our 116.86 target.A close below 2421.65 increases the odds of the decline continuing next week without much of a bounce.  But, it’s hard to know during a low-volume, holiday week.  The white 1.272 isn’t a solid Butterfly target, only because the Oct 29 lows exceeded the .786 by 17 points or so.

It’s more likely it’ll extend to the 1.618 at 2280 and, as we’ve discussed, we’re only 140 points from 2138 at that point.  It’s been a long time coming, but the odds are increasing with each such day as we had today.

I have a lot more to post and should get to it over the weekend, in amidst the last minute Christmas shopping.

Stay tuned.