Another day, another dearth of data. But, VIX is off 4% (so far) so the algos are only too happy to begin their run to the barn.

I got a good chuckle out of John Williams’ interview on CNBC this morning. While agreeing with me that the latest CPI data was hinky (my word, not his), he insists the Fed’s resumption of large scale treasury purchases is (obviously) definitely! not! QE!

“We are … obviously not doing QE, from my point of view, We’re not trying to change the 10-year, you know, term premium or something like that… The purchases are designed “to provide reserves to the banking system to meet the demand that the banks in our country and that operate here need in order to carry out their business.”

When I buy a new pair of jeans, the sales clerk doesn’t question whether I’m updating my wardrobe or a tornado ripped the pants from my body on the way to the store (a truly cataclysmic wardrobe malfunction.) Either way, they would ring up the sale, thus preserving our capitalist society for future generations.

Likewise, tossing another $500 billion annually into the money supply is quantitative easing and will stimulate the economy regardless of what you call it. Obviously.

continued for members…

If ES can hold 6865, it will complete a small IH&S targeting 6970. SPX has one, too, completing at 6816 and targeting 6913. Keep in mind that today is a triple witching day, so volatility could be quite high (i.e. it ain’t over till it’s over.)

We should get existing home sales and UMich consumer sentiment at 10am.

VIX made it out of the falling purple channel (16.50) by the close yesterday, but it’s right back in it today. And, VX has a shot at a bullish 10/20 cross today, but it will depend on it remaining above 17.95ish.

It’s another moment of truth for USDJPY.  It broke out of the rising white channel on Nov 19 in order to halt a minor meltdown. Yen strengthening has ended many a rally [see: Yen Carry Trade.] Will it do it again?

It’s another day of stabilization for CL and RB…

…which has produced a small gap higher for TNX.

The approaching holidays remind us that it’s time to produce our 2025 Review and 2026 Forecast. We’ll take a break next week from daily posts (unless something really exciting goes down) and try to harness the remaining brain cells into producing something interesting, if not profound.

Stay tuned…